Why does cash flow matter more than profit?
Profit is an opinion about a period. Cash is what is in the bank on Friday when wages are due. Businesses do not close because they made a loss on paper; they close because they could not pay someone on the day it mattered.
The gap between the two comes from timing. You pay for materials in March, do the work in April, invoice in May and get paid in June. The profit was earned in April. The cash arrived three months later, and in between the bank balance had to hold.
Watching cash flow means knowing, week by week, what is due in, what is due out, and whether the difference stays above zero. A forecast does not need to be clever; it needs to be looked at.